A completed public-data research example
Point-in-time financial data
Our July 2024 decision replay showed why a revised indicator can make a later backtest look cleaner than the evidence available at the time.
Exploratory work & conversations
Ideas under discussion
These items show the questions we've raised and what happened next—not work contracts.
Official reply · no pilot
Eastern Caribbean: capital-market readiness
We proposed checking whether three smaller businesses could meet the financial, governance and disclosure standards for a regulated raise. A regulatory contact explained that listing rules and securities laws were being revised, so companies were not available for the test.
Proposal and official response. No agreed assignment.
Formal proposal submitted
Ecuador: pressure on public programs
We proposed examining coordination and execution risks across three or four priority programs ahead of potential El Niño-related disruption.
Submitted through a government channel. No contract or approval claimed.
Professional correspondence
Financial signals: early warnings
We exchanged views with an investment professional about faster credit and policy signals and slower financial-conditions indicators. That led to further independent work on historical data revisions.
Research exchange; no advisory mandate.
Technical reply
Los Alamitos: projected odds
We asked how projected closing odds compare with final pool prices and where those differences matter across a multi-race sequence. A racing representative explained the intended informational use of the projections.
Technical exchange; no commercial engagement.
Research idea sent
Football: performance in context
We developed a question for club scouting: which parts of a player's performance will carry into a different system? The idea was sent to FC Tokyo.
Outreach only. No response verified from the records reviewed.
Independent exploratory research
Municipal assets: long-term choices
We are examining how public assets, reserves and long-term funding options could be assessed before a municipality considers a new approach. Separate local civic research has prompted correspondence with Newmarket officials.
No Overwatch municipal engagement or approval. NewmarketStandUp is separate.